New report highlights increasing prices in Pune, changing consumer preference

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    KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

    Average home prices rose 8.92% in the past year to an average of Rs 6,298 per sq ft in

    June 2024, a lifetime high

    Rates increased 19.95% over 24 months and 28.06% over 36 months

    Projects under development grew 9.61% from a decadal low of 2,227 in June 2023

    The increased inventory and prices have pushed the unsold inventory value to Rs 61,849Cr

    from Rs 49,423Cr

    Demand for larger homes persists. Three-bedroom units account for 27% of new launches,

    reflecting a shift of consumer preferences towards larger-sized homes.

    The PremiumPlus segment witnessed the maximum price rise with a 5-year CAGR of 7.58%,

    reaching Rs 8,310 per sq ft in June 2024

    Excess supply or inventory (inventory overhang) improved in the Value and PremiumPlus

    segments, with an overall market average of 9.68 months (from 8.7 months in June 2023)

    Yearly new launches increased by 5.8%, with PCMC accounting for 42%. Ready- and near-

    ready inventory is at a 10-year low, with 3,384 apartments available, and constitutes 4.5%

    of the total unsold inventory

    Home affordability is at 3.98x annual income, empowering buyers to purchase from

    branded developers, and pay a premium for reputation and track record

    Pune | July 4, 2024: Gera Developments Private Limited (GDPL), pioneers in Real Estate

    business, and award-winning creators of premium residential and commercial projects in

    Pune, Goa, and Bengaluru, released the July 2024 edition of their bi-annual report titled,

    “The 13 th Gera Pune Residential Realty Report”. It is based on primary and proprietary

    research conducted by GDPL, and covers all existing projects in a 30-km radius of the city

    centre. The report is an outcome of over a decade of research, and is the longest-running,

    census-based study of the residential markets of Pune.

    According to the latest edition of the report, for the period of Jan to June 2024, the rise

    in home prices has impacted affordability, but is driving buyers to more reputed

    developers. The fall in Sales Volume, combined with the rise in Inventory Overhang has

    put a slight pressure on sales momentum, indicating the need for a balanced approach

    towards the marketplace.

    Between June 2023 and June 2024, the number of under-construction projects in Pune

    rose, as did the average project size over the past decade. Projects under development

    show significant increase of 9.61% after a 10-year low in June 2023. As of Jun 2024, there

    are 3,12,748 apartments under development across the Pune region. This is an increase of

    2.65% over Jun 2023, when the apartments under development amounted to 3,04,688

    units. The average size of projects has increased by 44% – from 89 apartments per project,

    up to 128 apartments per project, over the decade between Jun 2014 to Jun 2024.The

    data also points towards the continuing trend of preference for larger homes, with

    developers launching homes sized at an average of 1,238 sq ft.

    Speaking on the findings of The 13 th Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July 2024

    edition, and the latest trends in Pune’s residential real estate market, Mr. Rohit Gera,

    Managing Director, Gera Developments Private Limited, said, “While the real estate

    market continues to show performance, the increase in prices of homes by 8.92%, coupled

    with the increase in home sizes driven by 1,400+ sq ft homes, is starting to affect

    customer affordability. Affordability has gone down to 3.98x annual income while 5 years ago

    affordability was 3.79x annual income in Jun 2020. Clearly, we are seeing pressure on

    affordability though it’s nowhere close to the peak of 5.30 and continues to remain good at

    present. This shows up in the sales volume having come down by 3.6% compared to the last

    12 months. The replacement ratio of 1.05 indicates that the quantum of new supply is

    greater by 5% compared to sales.”

    Mr. Gera further added, “On the other hand, the preference for near-ready and ready

    inventory is a sign that the market is leaning towards a low-risk delivery – a characteristic

    of developers with a strong brand, also driving the capacity of reputable developers to

    launch large projects. This reiterates the continued trend of market consolidation. The

    increase in inventory overhang years from 8.7 months from Jun 2023 to 9.7 months in Jun

    2024 indicates a little pressure on overall sales momentum throwing caution to the wind.”

    Here are the key highlights of The 13 th Gera Pune Residential Realty Report, encompassing trends from Jan 2024 to June 2024:

    #1: Projects under development surged by 9.61% since June 2023; Inventory Value

    now at Rs 61,849Cr.

    The number of under-construction projects has surged by 9.61%, from 2,227 in June 2023

    to 2,441 in June 2024. The increased inventory and prices have pushed the value of unsold

    inventory to Rs 61,849Cr as of Jun 2024 from 49,423Cr in Jun 2023. As of June 2024,

    3,12,748 apartments are being developed across the Pune region, marking a 2.65%

    increase from 304,688 units in June 2023. Despite a 4.56% decrease from the peak, the

    total number of projects has dropped 35% from 3,733 in June 2017 to 2,441 in June 2024.

    The total Inventory Value available for sale has increased significantly by 25%, from Rs

    49,423 crore in June 2023 to Rs 61,849 crore in June 2024.

    #2: Inventory Available for Sale increases by 7.3% to 75,598 units; highest growth in

    prices of homes in new projects

    In June 2014, Near-ready- and Ready-stage inventory constituted 23% of 66,683 units of

    total inventory for sale. By June 2024, this has dropped to a 10-year low of 4.5% of 75,598

    units, in the wake of the Ready-stage inventory at 2,384 units, down from 7,498 units in

    June 2014.

    In contrast, Early-stage inventory is at a 5-year high of 25,016 units, up from 19,116 units

    in June 2019, reflecting a consumer preference for lower delivery risk. Ready inventory

    dropped 74% from a peak of 9,005 homes in June 2018 to 2,384 in June 2024, and Near-

    ready-stage inventory declined from 3,691 homes to 1,000 homes.

    #3: Highest growth in prices of homes in new projects; homebuyers attracted most to

    PremiumPlus segment

    The average prices of homes across the city have risen by 8.92% in the last 12 months,

    driven by new projects, where prices have risen by as much as 15.39%. This takes the

    increase in rates to 19.95% over the past 24 months, and 28.06% over the past 36 months.

    Since bottoming out in 2019, prices have grown at a CAGR of 7.9%, reaching Rs 6,298 per

    sq ft in June 2024 from Rs 4,644 per sq ft in June 2020.

    New projects have seen the highest price growth, increasing at a CAGR of 8.3% from Rs

    5,460 per sq ft in June 2020 to Rs 7,499 per sq ft in June 2024. Existing projects and new

    phases are also catching up, with respective CAGRs of 7.2% and 6.91%.

    Segment-wise, the PremiumPlus segment experienced the highest price rise at a CAGR of

    7.58%, with prices growing from Rs 6,205 per sq ft in June 2020 to Rs 8,310 per sq ft in

    June 2024. At 33% cheaper than the Luxury segment, but being almost as aspirational, this

    segment holds the most appeal with buyers as it offers value for money.

    #4: Yearly new launches increase by 5.8%; PCMC accounts for 42% of all new launches

    in Pune

    New home launches rose by 5.8% over the past 12 months, totaling 99,166 units. The

    maximum quantum of new launches has been in the Budget segment (priced at Rs 5,081

    per sq ft or lower), where launches have seen a significant increase of 16.2%.

    Zone-wise, the maximum increase is seen in Zone 3 (Sinhagad Road, Ambegaon, Narhe,

    Dhayari), where new launches have increased by 27%, closely followed by Zone 1 (East

    Pune – Kharadi and Wagholi), where launches have increased by 25%. PCMC (Zone 6) now

    accounts for 42% of all new launches in Pune followed by Zone 4 (West Zone – Balewadi,

    Baner, Hinjewadi etc) which accounts for 21%.

    #5: Units sized 1,000+ sq ft witness a 12% sales growth

    In the past 12 months, Sales Velocity dropped by 3.6%, driven by a 19% decline in units

    sized 1,000 sq ft and below. Conversely, units over 1,000 sq ft saw a 12% increase in sales,

    from 48,796 to 54,634 units, even as the share of three bedrooms accounted for 27% in the

    overall new units launched, showing a preference for larger homes. The 1,401+ sq ft

    segment grew by 37%, now making up 21% of all sales. The 801-1,200 sq ft range accounts

    for 52% of sales. Home sizes of units launched in new projects continue to expand with the

    current average of 1,238 sq ft with a carpet area of 917 sq ft.

    #6: Consumer preference for bigger developers with a strong brand continues

    The trend of large projects (>500 units) continues with currently 189 projects accounting

    for 13% of the 3,12,748 units under various stages of construction. This number has

    improved substantially over time – in Jun 2018, they used to account for only 8%. Small

    projects (100 units or fewer) fell by 44%, from 2,433 in June 2018 to 1,362 in June 2024.

    This shift highlights consumer preference for reputable developers, boosting large project

    demand. Projects selling over 500 units rose from 1, eight years ago to 11 this past year.

    To conclude, sales volume has also come down by 3.6% compared to the last 12 months.

    While the Replacement Ratio stands at 1.05—indicating the quantum of new supply being

    greater by 5% compared to sales—the Inventory Overhang has improved significantly in the

    PremiumPlus (from 16.26 months in 2018 to 7.23 months in 2024) and Luxury segments (from

    20.59 months in 2018 to 10.22 months in 2024).

    Prices continue their stellar runup in the last 12 months impacting affordability to go

    down to 3.98x annual income. Although the pressure on affordability is nowhere close to

    the peak of 5.30, homes continue to remain accessible to most buyers.

    About The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report:

    The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report is a bi-annual initiative by Gera Developments

    Private Limited (GDPL) in its 13 th year of operation, aimed at garnering insights on both,

    the supply and demand sides of the residential realty market in Pune. This longest-

    running, census-based study uses a feet-on-street methodology of data gathering, and

    covers the Pune Urban Agglomeration area. The data is validated, and statistically

    analysed. What started as a knowledge-gathering initiative in 2011, has now become

    something that realtors, IPCs, Research Houses, Brokerage Houses, and Banks & Financial

    Institutions look forward to. Besides a broad overview of available inventory, consumer

    affordability, and offtakes and prices, the report dives deeper to mine insights by price

    segment, square footage, construction stage, and size of unit.

    About Gera Developments Private Limited:

    GDPL, a reputed brand for over 50 years, is one of the pioneers of the Real Estate business

    in Pune. Recognised as the creators of premium residential and commercial projects in

    Pune, Goa, and Bengaluru, the brand has established a global presence through

    developments in California, USA.

    GDPL prides itself on providing long-term assurance and peace-of-mind to customers by

    having a distinct customer-first approach. The philosophy of GDPL is “Let’s Outdo,” which

    rests on the trinity of Innovation, Transparency, and Enhanced Customer Experience. It is

    at the heart of GDPL’s effort to infuse innovation and transparency in Real Estate and

    home building, with an unwavering focus on meeting the shifting lifestyle dynamics of

    their customers, while upholding the premium living experience. Accordingly, there are

    many ‘firsts’ that stand to GDPL’s credit.

    The company introduced a 5-Year Warranty on Real Estate, consisting of Preventive

    Maintenance & Repairs, and provision of insurance on buildings way back in 2004 for the

    first time in India. RERA mandated the same only in 2017. GDPL has now introduced

    India’s first and only 7-year warranty in Real Estate. In 2014, GDPL designed and launched

    a pathbreaking concept, the award-winning ChildCentric® Homes, which revolutionised

    the Real Estate sector for both, the developer, and the home buyer. Other revolutionary

    and highly successful product lines have been Intelliplexes TM , SkyVillas TM , and The Imperium

    series. In its 50 th Year, the company launched yet another first-of-its-kind industry

    initiative – Gera’s Home Equity Power, by providing financial flexibility to customers to

    withdraw funds from their prior payments to meet financial emergencies.

    These products are matched by the services of the GeraWorld® Mobile App, which brings

    speed, convenience, and transparency to the buyer, enhancing the customer experience.

    GDPL has also recently launched the Club Outdo initiative, a tech-driven loyalty and

    referral program that provides multiple benefits, offers, and community engagement

    opportunities to existing and new customers.

    The company emphasises delivering value-added experiences to customers, with projects

    designed around the evolving needs of their customers. Driven by trust, quality, a

    customer-first mindset, and innovation, the brand has won several national and

    international awards on both the product and service front.

    GDPL continues to be ranked amongst the Top 50 Great Mid-Size Workplaces TM 2024 in

    India by the Great Places to Work® (GPTW) Institute. This year, we have also been proudly

    recognised as one of India’s Best Workplaces TM  in Real Estate Industry and India’s Best

    Workplaces TM  in Building a Culture of Innovation for All.

    GDPL envisions raising the standards of Real Estate in India. As it redefines the

    benchmarks of service orientation, product innovation, real estate marketing, and brand

    building, it is consistently generating fresh value for its stakeholders.

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