Real Estate Trends and Economic Overview: Delhi-NCR and Gurugram – 2023 Recap and 2024 Outlook

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    Economy Round-up:

    • India’s GDP surged by 7.7% in the first half of FY24, exceeding expectations despite geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
    • The RBI revised the GDP growth projections for the current financial year from 6.5% to 7.0% owing to healthy growth.
    • Domestic inflation softened but food inflation remains a concern for the Indian economy. RBI’s inflation projection for FY24 stands at 5.4%.

    Delhi-NCR Regulatory Announcements:

    • Municipal Corporation of Delhi mandated geo-tagging for 10% property tax exemption.
    • New Delhi Municipal Council increased property transfer fee by 1%.
    • Haryana Government introduced policies allowing residential plot conversions and relieved developers from constructing power substations.

    1. Delhi

    Delhi Price Trends:
    • Luxury floor capital values in Delhi surged by 18% YOY, mainly due to higher land acquisition costs and increased construction expenses.
    • South East Delhi saw the highest market appreciation at 31% YOY, followed by South West & South Central micromarkets at 24% and 15% respectively.
    • Residential plot values saw a substantial 23% YOY increase citywide, with Central 2 micromarket registering a remarkable 30% YOY increase.
    • Approximately 300 luxury apartments were launched in Delhi in 2023.
    Rental Trends in Delhi Micromarkets:
    • Average rental values grew by 26% YOY at a city level in 2023, with Central 1 micromarket witnessing the highest growth at 35% YOY.

    2. Gurugram

    Gurugram Price Trend:
    • Gurugram witnessed a significant increase in capital values of completed and under-construction properties, averaging 36% and 25% YOY respectively.
    • New Gurugram & Dwarka Expressway were top-performing micromarkets in 2023, with annual increases of 45% and 21% in under-construction properties’ average capital values.
    • Golf Course Road and GCER & SPR topped the chart for ready-to-move properties, showing YOY increases of 45% and 39% respectively in average capital values.
    Price Trends for Plots
    • The year 2023 saw a 20% year-on-year surge in the average capital values of residential plots in Gurugram at a citywide level. Notably, Dwarka Expressway experienced the most significant growth with a 22% year-on-year increase in average capital values. Following closely were GCER & SPR and Golf Course Road, showing 20% and 19% year-on-year growth respectively.
    • While the Haryana Government’s ongoing restriction on constructing fourth floors may have adversely impacted plot price appreciation, it paradoxically contributed to driving up floor prices. This scenario poses a challenge to potential buyers in the market.
    Rental Trends
    • The year-on-year data indicates a substantial 27% rise in average rentals at a city level. Notably, Dwarka Expressway experienced a significant increase of 36% year-on-year in rental values, closely followed by Golf Course Road, which saw a notable 30% year-on-year growth in rental rates.
    YOY Comparison
    • The number of new luxury unit launches in Gurugram notably surged to 3,758 units in 2022 and remarkably escalated to 9,097 units in 2023, indicating a doubling in the count. The micromarkets of GCER & SPR and New Gurugram collectively contributed to 90% of these new launches.

    3. Noida

    Noida Price Trends
    • Average capital values of completed properties in NOIDA surged by 32% year-on-year at a city level.
    • Under-construction properties also experienced a substantial uptick, with a 31% year-on-year increase in their average capital values citywide.
    • Sector 150 micromarket displayed exceptional growth in capital values for under-construction properties, recording an impressive 47% year-on-year increase.
    • In the category of completed properties, NOIDA Others maintained its position as the top-performing market, boasting a 36% year-on-year increase. Sector 150 followed closely with a remarkable 32% year-on-year rise.
    • Sector 150’s exceptional growth is attributed to its strategic location, providing convenient access to NOIDA-Greater NOIDA Expressway and the upcoming Jewar International Airport. The area’s appeal has significantly improved due to the presence of reputed developers, enhanced connectivity within the National Capital Region, and the announcement of new developments like the International Cricket Stadium, resulting in a notable surge in property prices in recent quarters.
    Noida Rental Trends
    • NOIDA Others micromarket, with 7% YOY increase, witnessed the highest rental growth in 2023.
    • Newer availability of luxury residential apartments in Sector 150
      has resulted in softening of average rental values in the
      micromarket.

    YOY Comparison

    • In 2022, there were 921 units launched, but this number more than doubled to 2,039 units in 2023. Over 65% of these new luxury developments are concentrated along the NOIDA-Greater NOIDA Expressway, signifying the growing prominence of this micromarket in the luxury residential segment.

    Outlook

    • The luxury housing market in Delhi-NCR has experienced consistent growth over the past couple of years. Considering the strong performance this year and increased economic activity, it’s anticipated to sustain its growth trajectory in 2024.
    • Throughout the year, there has been a consistent demand for luxury homes, resulting in substantial price hikes for both completed and under-construction properties across most micromarkets in the region. Although developers are planning to introduce new luxury units to meet this demand, prices are expected to continue rising in 2024.
    • Government interventions, such as the limitation on deductions from capital gains for investments in residential houses to INR 10 crore effective from April 1, 2024, might negatively impact luxury housing transactions thereafter. Consequently, we might observe heightened activity in the first quarter of 2024.
    • Peripheral areas like Dwarka Expressway, New Gurugram, Southern Peripheral Road (SPR) in Gurugram, and Sector 150 in NOIDA are expected to remain in the spotlight for potential buyers. Anticipated improvements in connectivity due to the completion of the Dwarka Expressway in Gurugram and the Jewar International Airport in NOIDA could lead to considerable price appreciation in both capital and rental values in these micromarkets.

    (Source: Savills India Research)

    Also read: Delhi-NCR’s Unsold Inventory at Decadal Low – Under 1 Lakh Units for 1st Time

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