India’s retail sector is poised to nearly double in value, reaching $1.93 trillion by 2030, according to a new report by Deloitte and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), as reported by millenniumpost.
The report attributes this growth to strong domestic consumption, increased digital penetration, and rising purchasing power, particularly among younger consumers.
The sector, valued at $1.06 trillion in 2024, is expected to expand at a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), as outlined in the report titled “Spotting India’s PRIME Innovation Moment.” It said that India’s large domestic market acts as a cushion against global trade volatility and is enabling the retail and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industries to scale internationally.
India’s growing economic base is being driven by the direct spending power of Generation Z, estimated at $250 billion. This financial strength is boosting domestic demand and providing confidence to brands seeking global expansion, the report stated.
India’s retail and consumer landscape is undergoing significant change, fueled by digital adoption, the trend of premiumization, and rapid e-commerce growth across both metropolitan areas and emerging markets.
The report noted that Tier II and III cities now account for over 60% of all e-commerce transactions, signaling a significant shift in consumer behavior beyond India’s metro regions. This transformation is supported by a young, digitally savvy population and an expanding middle class.
“India’s consumer ecosystem is entering a defining decade,” said Anand Ramanathan, partner and consumer industry leader at Deloitte South Asia. “The rising economic influence of non-metro cities is reshaping the way businesses think about scale and reach.”
Quick commerce is gaining momentum, with India becoming the first major economy to scale this model across more than 80 cities. The segment is expanding rapidly, registering a 70–80% CAGR, according to the report.
D2C (direct-to-consumer) brands are also transforming retail strategy. The Indian D2C market crossed $80 billion in 2024 and is on track to surpass $100 billion by 2025, changing how brands engage directly with consumers and scale their presence.
The report highlighted a growing trust in “Made in India” products. Around 68% of Indian consumers prefer domestic brands for food and beverages, 55% for home décor, and 53% for personal care. This trend underscores the increasing strength of India’s manufacturing and branding ecosystems.
Online marketplaces now influence 73% of all purchase decisions. Among digital touchpoints, YouTube reviews influence 40% of consumers, while peer recommendations impact 51%, emerging as preferred alternatives to conventional influencer marketing.
The report noted that India’s evolving free trade agreements (FTAs) and tariff realignments are enhancing the competitiveness of Indian exports. Reduced trade barriers and cost efficiencies are helping Indian goods enter new global markets more easily.
“In the current environment of evolving tariff realignments and expanding FTAs, India’s deep domestic consumption base not only sustains growth at home but also creates a strong springboard for global competitiveness,” Ramanathan said.
Going forward, growth will be led less by expanding physical distribution and more by companies’ ability to understand regional nuances, consumer behavior shifts, and the need for purpose-led, sustainable innovation, the report said.
“With decisive action and strategic foresight, India can double its retail market to nearly $1.9 trillion by 2030 while setting global benchmarks for resilience, innovation, and sustainability in the consumer sector,” Ramanathan added.